Andrew Bailey & Craig Breslow Pitching Lab

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It is no industry secret whatsoever that minor league pitching development has been a serious organizational flaw for the Boston Red Sox over the past decade and a half, as they have struggled to produce much pitching talent that has stuck around with the Major League team. In fact, since 2010, only eight pitchers who came up entirely through the Sox system have made at least fifteen starts with Boston–with two of those being Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, who debuted in 2006 and 2007, respectively. Of those six other guys, three—Tanner Houck, Brian Johnson, and Brandon Workman—have appeared out of relief more than 40% of the time. Of the three who have made more than 60% of their appearances as starters, two, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford, have done much of their development at the Major League level to turn themselves into quality big leaguers. The other, Henry Owens, was amongst the top prospects in baseball, sitting at #19 in MLB Pipeline's 2015 preseason prospect rankings; he showed major potential in the minors before never being able to figure out his repertoire in the Majors, making only 16 starts with an ERA of 5.19, a FIP of 5.00 and a BB/9 of 4.7. He had impeccable stuff, but, even in the minors, struggled with command and, in the Majors, was not able to tinker enough with this flaw to find success. 

While the Red Sox have found success in the past decade, winning World Series in 2013 and 2018, much of the pitching success, outside Lester and Buchholz in 2013, has come off the backs of imported pitching pieces like Chris Sale, David Price, and Nate Eovaldi (Eduardo Rodriguez does not count, as he was acquired from the Orioles while in AA). 

After the Chaim Bloom era in Boston came to an end in September, in my opinion, too quickly, a search commenced for who would next lead Boston's baseball operation, the fourth individual since 2015. Many candidates were discussed, but, in the end, Craig Breslow, the Cubs' Assistant General Manager and VP of Pitching, was named Chief Baseball Officer. 

A little background on Breslow for those unfamiliar: Breslow graduated from Yale with a degree in molecular physics and biochemistry and, in his senior year, led the Ivy League with a 2.56 ERA, getting drafted in the 26th round of the 2002 draft by the Brewers. He made his debut in 2005 with the Padres and eventually won a World Series in 2013 with the Red Sox. While he was a player, he was touted as the "smartest man in baseball." Over his dozen years in the big leagues, Breslow utilized several methods to extend his career and get the most out of himself on the mound. In 2016, Breslow started experimenting with his mechanics with Rapsodo, aiming to improve velocity and increase movement on his pitches. When he began using Rapsodo in October 2016, he had 9.45 inches of horizontal break on his two-seamer, and just three months later, utilizing Rapsodo, he was able to add nearly 9 additional inches of movement onto the pitch, as well as an increase in vertical break of 6 inches. Breslow's expedition to prolong his career and improve his pitch shape was also featured in Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik's MVP Machine. While his efforts to prolong his career did not result in a Major League contract beyond the 2017 season (minor league contract with Blue Jays in 2018), the methods gave him somewhat of a baseline as to what he'd start to implement moving forward with the Cubs, who he'd join soon after his playing career ended. 

While in Chicago, Breslow quickly amassed sway and became incredibly well-respected throughout the game due to his complete revamp of pitching within the Cubs organization. As the Assistant GM and VP of Pitching with the Cubs, Breslow oversaw the pitching infrastructure and worked to align the overarching philosophies of the pitching programs from top to bottom—from the Majors down to the DR Academy. The main pillars of Breslow's pitching philosophy are to give all pitchers the most room for error and to pinpoint what a successful Major League pitcher looks like at every level (i.e., what he looks like when in Low-A, High-A), solving for what makes the most successful pitcher who can contribute at the Major League level. He found that the ability to generate swings and misses in the strike zone is supremely valuable in predicting future success, thus deciding to build out stuff, velocity, and pitch shapes. In terms of room for error, think of it as a guy throwing a 4-seamer at 100 MPH with carry does not need to locate as precisely as one that is 88 MPH from the same arm slot. 

As evidenced through Driveline and other player development labs, velocity is something that can be improved, as well as pitch shape; however, command, Breslow found, can not be so easily improved. There are plenty of cases of guys entering pitching labs and leaving with a wipe-out slider with new characteristics on the pitch, examples of guys improving their curveball or other pitches, but it is incredibly rare for someone to enter the lab and leave with plus-plus command. Breslow and the Cubs were able to improve stuff and velocity quite well but generally had difficulty teaching and improving command. Thus, when looking to acquire pitching, the Cubs' philosophy was to look for pitchers who were already proficient at the things that the team struggled to develop and identify pitchers for whom they have a developmental unlock of something that they can develop, which could be a tweak to a delivery, pitch usage, arm slot, or even the addition of a new pitch. However, Breslow has been keen on the philosophy that development is not done once someone hits the Major Leagues. This has been seen with the progression of guys like Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Keegan Thompson, and Adbert Alzolay once they got to Wrigley.

Similar to the Red Sox of the past decade, the Cubs were in a tough spot in terms of in-house pitching development prior to Breslow's arrival. Between 2013 and 2018, the Cubs saw only 178.1 IP from true homegrown pitchers. Breslow joined the Cubs prior to the 2019 season, and after the organization conducted an assessment of their pitching development through 2018, they found that very few pitchers they drafted or signed as an international free agent were gaining velocity or improving upon their pitch shape metrics after joining the organization. Breslow's complete revamp of the Cubs' pitching infrastructure can only be deemed an organizational success. In 2023, just five years removed from a pitching development system in which pitchers were not improving upon their velocity or stuff, the Cubs minor-league pitching ranked first in average fastball velocity and second in stuff/Stuff+ metrics. Breslow, also keen on depth and having plenty of Major League talent ready and waiting at all levels of the minors rather than an elite prospect or two, saw his system thrive as a whole at the Major League level in 2023, seeing 417.1 IP from pitchers who debuted after his arrival in Chicago, a number more than double the amount of the half-decade span before he got to Wrigley. 

Quickly after Breslow took over as CBO of the Red Sox, Andrew Bailey, Breslow's teammate on the 2013 World Series winning team, was brought in as the pitching coach of the Red Sox. In his four years prior to coming to Boston, Bailey was the pitching coach for the Giants and built a reputation as one of the game's great pitching minds. Under his guidance came the best seasons for many arms in San Francisco, such as Anthony Desclafani, Carlos Rodon, Alex Cobb, and the realization of Kevin Gausman's potential as an upper-echelon starter in MLB. 

In a recent interview with Rob Bradford on the Baseball Isn't Boring podcast, Bailey explained what he finds crucial when it comes to getting the most out of his pitchers. He said, "First pitch strikes are huge for me. Winning the first three pitches, we have certain statistics that we track and monitor." Last year, the Giants were number two in MLB in terms of first pitch strike percentage, only trailing the Mariners. 

He also honed in on his philosophy that guys have to leverage their best weapons as often as possible. The pitchers have to know/be reminded of their strengths and embrace those strengths, doubling down on them and then going out and attacking. Later on, I'll touch more on Lucas Giolito. Still, Bailey discussed some of his plans for the recent Red Sox acquisition, articulating that Giolito is not too far removed from being one of the better pitchers in the sport. He highlighted Giolito's best weapons: elite deception and an elite changeup, which were incredible strengths at his peak, but, over the past two seasons, he had gotten away from that, and he has to get back to that and double down on it to become the best pitcher that he can.

Bailey described pitching in the Major Leagues as a tightrope, so to speak, and that without the proper tutelage, the net/pit can be a thousand feet deep, but, with the proper guidance and coaching, the net can be elevated quite a bit, and, the stretch of five poor starts, without appropriate coaching modifications, can be lowered to just an inning or two under the right staff with the right data. 

Akin to Breslow, Bailey is a major proponent of the idea that development doesn't stop once a guy hits the Majors. In San Francisco, guys like Logan Webb, Kevin Gausman, Anthony Desclafani, and Alex Cobb were able to maximize their performance on the mound and get the most out of their talents.

Some interesting things to note about Bailey's pitching staffs in San Francisco: 

• Giants' four-seam usage has gone down each year since Bailey got there

• 2020: 38.7% 2021: 35.9% 2022: 24% 2023: 14.7%

• Sinker usage rose every year

• 2020: 9.3% 2021: 15.1% 2022: 21.8% 2023: 28.1%

• Lower FA% and Higher Sinker% correlate as pitch shape changes may lead to fastballs being picked up as sinkers

• Giants were number three in wCH (Changeup runs above average) in 2023 at 15.6

• Number 1 in changeup usage

• Number 2 in Location+ on changeups

• Slider Percentage rose every year under Bailey

• 2020: 17.0% 2021: 23.5% 2022: 29.5% 2023: 32.9%

• Stuff+ on Sliders rose every year

• Ranked first in slider usage among all staffs in 2022 and 2023

• Overall Stuff+ Numbers 

• 2020: 99 2021: 101 2022: 102: 2023: 101

• Location+ Year by Year

• 2020: 100 2021: 101 2022: 102 2023: 101

Since Bailey took over the reins of the Giants' pitching staff, their arms have been much more effective in utilizing their changeups, being number three in overall run value on the pitch, number one in usage, and number two in Location+. Much of these numbers are due in part to the emergence of Logan Webb as one of the game's best arms, as he threw the most changeups in the league (1324) in 2023; his wCH of 25.8 ranks it as the most valuable changeup in Major League Baseball, and the run value of +28, also making it the most valuable in the sport. He has improved upon its effectiveness each year while also increasing usage of the pitch, fitting into Bailey's philosophy to utilize your best weapons as often as possible. He has increased usage from 23.6% in 2021 to 31.2% in 2022 and 41.6% in 2023. Run value has improved on the pitch as well, going from +1 in 2021 to +12 in 2022 and to +28 in 2023. wCH has also improved yearly, going from 0.9 in 2021 to 11.7 in 2022 to 25.8 in 2023. In 2023, wOBA against Webb's changeup was .254, good for 10th best in the league (minimum 100 PA). This is an improvement from 2021 and 2022, where wOBA against on the pitch was .322 and .256 respectively. Under Bailey, Webb has been able to turn this pitch into the best weapon in his arsenal and become one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball. 

Andrew Bailey explained in his interview with Rob Bradford that he sees similarities between Webb and young Red Sox starter Brayan Bello, who, like Webb, is a righty who uses his changeup and sinker more than any pitch in his arsenal. 

In 2023, Brayan Bello showed incredible potential, working to a 3.04 ERA and 3.74 FIP through July 5, before becoming prone to the wear and tear of the most innings he has thrown in a pro season. In 2023, Bello showcased just how effective he can be with a sinker and changeup, the same two weapons that Webb uses to find success. 

While not to the same effectiveness as Webb, Bello's changeup was the eleventh most valuable in the sport in 2023, with a run value of +9 and a wOBA against of .254, which is identical to Webb's. wCH for Bello in 2023 sat at 8.4, making it the tenth most effective league-wide, according to Fangraphs. 

Bello's sinker was more effective in 2023 than Webb's despite throwing it 117 fewer times. The pitch was 24th most effective in the Majors, at +7 in terms of RV, compared to +1 for Webb. wOBA against, on the pitch, was .365, which, while pedestrian, was more effective than Webb at .376. Location+ on the pitch was 102 for Webb and 101 for Bello.

Baseball Savant allows you to compare the affinity/similarity of characteristics between a pitcher and his league counterparts in either batted ball data or pitch shape. Regarding batted ball data, Webb and Bello share an affinity score of 0.75. For Webb in 2023, Bello had the fifth-closest batted ball profile. In fact, of all pitching seasons, the season with the most similar batted ball profile to Webb's in 2023 was Brayan Bello in 2022. 

Data courtesy of Baseball Savant

Webb and Bello were called up in the summers of 2019 and 2022, respectively, and, in the short samples of these two's rookie years, the pitch shape on their sinker was quite similar. In 2019, Webb averaged 25 inches of vertical movement, while in 2022, Bello averaged 25.1 inches of vertical movement. In terms of horizontal movement on the pitch, Webb averaged 16.3 inches and Bello 17.2 inches in 2019 and 2022, respectively. Pitch characteristics are quite similar, and perhaps Bailey sees Bello's sinker, which has been his most frequented weapon in his arsenal, as a tool that can elevate his game, perhaps bringing Bello to a level similar to Webb, who, on the other hand, relied on the changeup. The similarities in Webb and Bello's batted ball profiles, as well as the pitch shape characteristics in their pre-Andrew Bailey arrival sinkers, should make Bello an intriguing candidate for Bailey to tinker with to maximize his potential.

One fellow Dominican who utilized a nasty changeup and sinker quite often in Boston was Pedro Martinez, who, in my opinion, is the greatest pitcher of all time. His run in Boston, in particular his 1999 and 2000 seasons, the two greatest seasons of that run, in which he posted ERA+s of 243 and 291, as well as FIPs of 1.39 and 2.17, was the greatest stretch of pitching in Major League history. In his post-playing days, he has made himself available to Red Sox pitchers, and in a video from Bello's Instagram story, the two appear to be working together this offseason, an incredibly pleasant sign for fans of the Red Sox. There is perhaps no one more qualified to talk on a wipe-out changeup than Pedro, and it can only benefit Bello to seek his guidance on it.

Based on recent comments from Breslow and ownership, the rotation appears to be close to set in Boston, and, at this point, it features Bello, Lucas Giolito, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, and potentially Tanner Houck.

Outside of a stall in the market, Giolito mentioned that one of the main incentives of signing in Boston was working with Bailey. After being a top-of-the-line arm from 2019 through 2021, Giolito's past two seasons haven't been too great, but according to Giolito and Bailey, they see ways to get Giolito back to that form. In his press conference after signing in Boston, Giolito noted, "I feel like it's [Boston is] just a great fit for me, what I'm trying to do, get back to the type of pitcher I know I can be, I'm a huge fan of Andrew Bailey, the new pitching coach. I've had wonderful conversations with him over the last couple of weeks." Bailey also noted in his interview with Rob Bradford that Giolito is not far removed from being one of the best pitchers in baseball, that development doesn't stop once you hit the Majors (something that Breslow and Bailey have driven home), and that they have a plan in place to improve his performance in 2024. 

2023 did not get off to the start that Nick Pivetta would have liked, posting a 6.15 ERA and 5,46 FIP through May 24. However, on May 28, Pivetta introduced a sweeper, and his performance on the mound improved drastically from there. Prior to that date, no one in Major League Baseball performed worse against righty batters than Pivetta; however, after introducing a sweeper, he improved drastically, posting the best outcomes against righties of any right-handed arm in Major League Baseball. This can be attributed to his incredible resilience, the introduction of the sweeper, and his work with Driveline. According to a video from Driveline, Pivetta saw an incredible jump in fastball velocity, jumping from 93.4 MPH to 95 MPH after that May 28 date. Also, while working at Driveline, Pivetta worked to get his curveball over 80 MPH. Since 2022, when the curveball has eclipsed 80 MPH, the swinging strike rate has been more than double the rate when it is below that velocity. After May 28, Pivetta posted a 3.05 ERA, 3.27 FIP, and an astounding 12.5 K/9. Pivetta's Stuff+ was 127 after that May 28 date as well (4th in MLB, minimum 80 IP), with the Stuff+ on his Fastball ranking second in the Majors behind Spencer Strider from that date onward. Stuff+ on the curveball was also top 10 in Major League Baseball among all guys with at least 80 IP from 5/28 till the end of the season. His full-season SIERA of 3.36 ranked seventh in MLB as well, ahead of Pablo Lopez, Zack Wheeler, Gerrit Cole, and Shohei Ohtani. Pivetta's work with Driveline paid off massively, and it will be intriguing to see if he continues to flourish under the Bailey and Breslow pitching lab.

Another arm in Boston that has been getting quite a bit of attention is Kutter Crawford. In 2023, Crawford made massive strides, becoming a key cog in a Red Sox rotation that needed some innings and consistency. He posted a 4.04 ERA, a 3.83 FIP, and a 25.6% K rate, which appear quite solid, but his performance was much better than those numbers indicate, as his xERA sat at just 3.25. Kutter got a good amount of swing and misses on pitches out of the zone, finishing in the 82nd percentile with a 31.9 % chase rate in Major League Baseball. He also tends to limit hard contact, finishing in the 76th percentile in hard-hit rate at 35.3%. Kutter has a vast arsenal, with 6 different pitches to work off of. He features a 4-seamer (39.1% usage), a cutter, as his name entails (28.3% usage), a knuckle curve (11.9% usage), a splitter (7.8% usage), a sweeper (6.7% usage), and a slider (6.2% usage). He gets incredible results on his 4 seamer, with opponents hitting .164, with a .327 SLG and a .272 wOBA against. Success on the four-seamer can be attributed to the impeccable pitch shape metrics, with an average of 12.4 inches of drop and 9.5 inches of break on the pitch in 2023. While used less frequently, his sweeper is a great tool, with opponents hitting just .128, with a .205 SLG and a .158 wOBA against. Kutter uses his cutter quite effectively, too, with a hard-hit rate of just 27.5% against the pitch. While he has room to improve, his arsenal should continue to thrive under Bailey and Breslow. 

Tanner Houck is another intriguing arm that the Red Sox have to offer. While he has done incredible the first two times through the order, he has shown to have a ridiculous fall-off in performance the third time through the order. While the jury is still out on his effectiveness as a long-term starter, the stuff is most definitely there and, in fact, is quite similar to Logan Webb, aforementioned in this piece. In terms of velocity and movement on all pitches in 2023, there was no pitcher more similar to Logan Webb than Tanner Houck, with a similarity score of 0.81. 

Data courtesy of Baseball Savant

Despite having a down year in 2023, due in most part to injuries, Houck was able to find value from his slider. Batters hit .178, with a .301 SLG and .259 wOBA against his slider, which, in fact, was the 19th most valuable in the Majors in terms of wSL at 6.5 (minimum 80 IP). Despite finding success with the slider, his 4-seamer, splitter, and sinker got hammered, with wOBA's against of .425 (4-seam), .340 (splitter), and .395 (sinker), and SLG against of .550, .452, and .507. Houck, however, was quite unlucky, with a 0.8 run discrepancy in his ERA and xERA and a disparity of 0.36 between his FIP and xFIP, much of which can be attributed to the Red Sox' below-average team defense. Houck, in my opinion, serves best as a multiple-inning relief option, which is where he found success for a period of 2022. The inability to get through the order a third time is incredibly evident, and despite his pure stuff, it may not be enough for him to remain a long-term option in the Red Sox rotation. 

The Red Sox bullpen was not a problem in 2023, yet it was far too taxed once the stretch run was reached, as the team used the 4th most bullpen innings in all of Major League Baseball. Chris Martin was arguably the best reliever in baseball in 2023, posting a 1.05 ERA, 23 ERA-, 2.44 FIP, and a league-wide best 114 Location+ out of the bullpen. While earned runs are not the best measure of a pitcher's performance by a mile, it is interesting to note that after June 6, Martin gave up 1 ER in 33.2 IP to finish off the season. Josh Winckowski also provided bulk innings out of the Red Sox bullpen, posting the third most innings as a reliever in the league in 2023 at 83.1. For a Red Sox bullpen that needed to cover more innings than most in 2023, Winckowski provided more than all but two. Winckowski's cutter was quite effective, helping him limit hard contact out of the pen. The hard-hit rate on the pitch was 26.4. Grouped with the sinker and slider, these weapons allow Winckowski to work to a 51.2% ground ball rate out of the pen. While used only 67 times in 2023, Winckowski's 4-seamer was a competent weapon. He was generally able to locate it well, posting a 119 Location+ (Third amongst all relievers) on the pitch and limited damage, allowing just a .186 wOBA against it as well. Other options out of the pen for the Red Sox include John Schreiber, Brennan Bernardino, and Garrett Whitlock, who all are definite quality options going forward. It remains to be seen who will be the Red Sox closer in 2024, if they have one at all, with Kenley Jansen trade rumors flying around as the Red Sox work to cut down payroll. 

While one man can not immediately improve the pitching infrastructure of an organization, if Breslow's philosophy can be shared from top to bottom, there is certain to be organizational improvement on the pitching side. Work needs to be done at the minor league level; this could be inundating minor league pitching coaches with the information that they need or replacing the non-conforming coaches with guys who will buy in. If Breslow can replicate some of what was done in Chicago by getting everyone on the same page as to what traits are necessary to develop and/or find, and Bailey sees similar results developing arms at the Major League level, the Red Sox' greatest organizational flaw can become a strength. 

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Relevant Work:

Andracki, T., & Martinez, A. (2022, October 28). Cubs VP of Pitching Craig Breslow. Cubs Weekly. episode. 

Baseball Savant. (n.d.). https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/ 

Bradford, R. (2024, January 10). Baseball Isn’t Boring. Red Sox Pitching Coach Andrew Bailey and His New World. episode. 

Browne, I. (2024, January 4). Red Sox Finalize Deal with Giolito to Add Starting Depth. MLB.com. https://www.mlb.com/news/lucas-giolito-red-sox-free-agent-deal 

Drellich, E. (2017, January 27). Ex-Red Sox Reliever Craig Breslow Crunches Data, Emerges with New Pitch. Boston Herald. https://www.bostonherald.com/2017/01/27/ex-red-sox-reliever-craig-breslow-crunches-data-emerges-with-new-pitch/ 

Fangraphs. (n.d.). https://www.fangraphs.com/ 

Laurila, D. (2023, December 19). Craig Breslow Has Brought a Touch of Minnesota to Boston’s Pitching Program. FanGraphs . https://blogs.fangraphs.com/craig-breslow-has-brought-a-touch-of-minnesota-to-bostons-pitching-program/ 

Lindbergh, B., & Sawchik, T. (2020). MVP Machine: How Baseball’s New Nonconformists are Using Data to Build Better Players. Basic Books. 

McCaffrey, J. (2023a, November 3). Red Sox Set to Revamp Pitching Infrastructure with Craig Breslow Leading The Way. The Athletic. https://theathletic.com/5025990/2023/11/03/red-sox-craig-breslow-pitching-revamp/ 

McCaffrey, J. (2023b, November 15). How Andrew Bailey Could Help Red Sox Jump Start Big League Pitching Staff. The Athletic. https://theathletic.com/5063963/2023/11/15/red-sox-pitching-coach-andrew-bailey/ 

McCaffrey, J. (2023c, November 20). How Jameson Taillon Informs Craig Breslow’s Blueprint for Red Sox Pitching Pursuits. The Athletic. https://theathletic.com/5072351/2023/11/20/craig-breslow-free-agency-blueprint/ 

McWilliams, J. (2024, January 4). “You’re Never Going to See Me Slacking Off”: Lucas Giolito Looks Forward to a Return to Top Form with Red Sox. The Boston Globe. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/01/03/sports/red-sox-make-signing-righthander-lucas-giolito-official/ 

Taylor, T. (2016, November 29). Rapsodo Baseball Review: Pitch Tracking Radar System. https://www.si.com/edge/2016/11/29/rapsodo-baseball-mlb-pitch-tracking-camera-metrics-craig-breslow